Poor get poorer
As always, given the inequities built into the global economic system, the poorest people in the world have been the…
India&’s population growth has always been a big headache for policymakers since independence. India was the first developing country to declare a policy to reduce fertility in 1952, but the country&’s record in tempering population growth lagged behind many others. However, fresh demographic data published by the Census office earlier this week shows India has made rapid strides in reducing fertility levels over the past decade and, if current trends continue, India&’s population may stabilize in the next few years. The latest Sample Registration System (SRS) statistical report shows India&’s total fertility rate (TFR) has fallen 0.3 point over the past five years to 2.3 in 2013. Over the past decade, it has fallen by roughly 0.6 point. TFR is a summary measure of fertility that indicates the average number of children a woman of child-bearing age is likely to have in a particular period of time. Assuming zero mortality in women of child-bearing group, a TFR of 2 would denote that population in a society has stabilized. In most advanced and middle-income economies, a TFR of 2.1 is typically considered to be the replacement level. When the TFR reaches the replacement level, the country moves into the final phases of demographic transition, in which population first stabilizes, and then falls as TFR falls below the replacement level. If the pace of decline in fertility over the past few years continues over the next half a decade, India&’s TFR will have reached the replacement level.
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