The homogeneity of the Hindutva platform runs the risk of a repetition of Bihar&’s experience. The dharmasastras of Manusmriti are threatening the electoral calculus of the saffron brigade with a replay of the varna theory. The impending Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh (with 21 per cent of the country&’s Dalit population); Punjab (which has the highest percentage of Dalits at 31 per cent of the population) and in Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa, have upped the ante in terms of Dalit politics. This can upset the carefully crafted party positions on seeking the Dalit vote.

The public flogging of Dalit youth in Gujarat, the cradle of the Hindutva experiment, has exposed the inherent defects of a singular Hindu identity. Certain puritanical tenets of the Sangh Parivar&’s “Brahmanical” approach have posited the Dalit identity and existence at opposite ends of the fractious identity debate. With the advent of modernity, participative democracy and the churning in the societal stratification, the Dalit assertion was triggered initially by EV Ramasamy (Periyar). While EVR&’s invocation was essentially around self-respect and anti-Brahmanism, the “Mandalisation” of the early 1990s and the emergence of Kanshi Ram&’s Bahujan Samaj Party have redefined Dalit dynamics in electoral terms.

The heightened sensitivity and the desire to be apparently responsive towards Dalit sentiments were highlighted in the quick damage-control exercise of sacking Daya Shankar Singh, the vice-president of the BJP in UP, in the aftermath of his objectionable remarks against the BSP leader, Mayawati. Even the timely criticism of the gau rakshaks by the Prime Minister himself points to the gravity of the polarization within the ‘Hindu’ electorate. The risk of the Dalit vote going against the BJP is substantial. An untimely’ comment attributed to the RSS head, Mohan Bhagwat, in the run-up to the Bihar assembly elections, suggesting a review of reservations, had prompted the ‘Grand Alliance’ to conclude that the BJP was averse to reservations, and was therefore anti-Dalit. Clarifications to the contrary were lost in the ensuing accusations and counter-accusations. However, Bhagwat&’s contention did upset the Dalit psyche.

While addressing his party&’s core group of representatives from all the 29 states and seven Union Territories, the Prime Minister stated, Rashtravadi toh hamare saath hain, humein Dalit aur pichchde ko saath lana hai (The nationalists are with us, we need to bring Dalits and backwards). The cow vigilante groups and the accompanying societal dynamics are deep rooted, even the counter-protest by Dalits in Gujarat to stop clearing carcasses as a mark of protest has led to a reverse scuffle with the thrashing of two Dalits in Saurashtra for having refused to dispose the carcass of a calf.

For any religious nationalism to succeed, all perceived elements, constituents and rituals of the religion need to be aligned; however the faultlines of diversity and rejection of sub-sect supremacy often leads to dissension, even rejection. The sectarian violence within Islam reflects the inherent pluralism and divide within the larger Islamic identity, which is akin to the divides within Hinduism. The priorities within a religion are not shared. It thus comes about that cow vigilantism is seen as a preserve, priority and potent symbol of the “Upper Castes”.

After the demolition of the Babari Masjid, the BJP has toned down its religio-centricity and buttressed its “religio-nationalism”, which is more external than internal. However, this has a limited traction for the economically and socially struggling Dalits and tribals. The more urgent need to find a “voice” was echoed in Rohit Vemula&’s suicide note — “The value of a man was reduced to his immediate identity and nearest possibility. To a vote. To a number. To a thing. Never was a man treated as a mind. As a glorious thing made up of stardust. In every field, in studies, in streets, in politics, and in dying and living”.

Clearly, the dominant ideology was unable to subsume the prevailing angst and ire amongst the Dalits; the “Brahmanical” Hindutva appeal is fractured with discrimination and bigotry.

The “Dalit outreach initiative” of the BJP is clearly on the back-foot after the earlier scare of an exodus of senior BSP leaders to the BJP. Today, Mayawati is connecting the dots of societal flare-ups across the country to project her personality and credentials of championing Dalit rights. Secondly, the absence of any senior Dalit leader in the BJP with a pan-India appeal is another factor. Not since Bangaru Laxman (president of the BJP from 2000 to 2001 and subsequently convicted in a corruption case), has the BJP been able to place Dalits at the helm of the party.

It is imperative for the BJP to retain its “Upper Caste” constituents, even as it has to cope with its “Anti-Dalit” perceptions. Playing off one against the other can be counter-productive. Realising the gravity of the “Anti-Dalit” perceptions, the Prime Minister stated, “Over 80 per cent of BJP workers are SC, ST and OBC and yet opposition parties have tried to create misconceptions about the party through concerted campaigns”.

Besides the BSP, even mainstream parties like the Congress and AAP, with considerable stake in the forthcoming state elections, have been quick to exploit the inherent faultlines in the saffronite attempt towards a Hindutva linkage.

The BJP managed the Dalit dynamics rather well in the last general elections — from one in ten votes in the 1990s, it went up to one in every four Dalit votes in 2014, surpassing both the Congress and the BSP. Smart pre-election alliances with Ram Vilas Paswan&’s LJP, Ramdas Athavale&’s RPI and induction of people like Udit Raj did offer a ray of hope to the Dalits. The formula has now fallen apart and the inherent and regressive traits have resurfaced to drive a wedge between the “haves” and the “have not&’s”, who are again wary of the Dalit dream in view of what has been happening across the country.

The writer is Lt Gen PVSM, AVSM (Retd), Former Lt Governor of Andaman & Nicobar Islands & Puducherry.