It’s now well and truly in the last lap. The electoral sound and fury will soon be over and already large numbers of absentee ballots have been cast including that of President Obama. If one is to pay heed only to the pollsters and the diviners of opinion Clinton has so far outstripped her rival and what remains is more or less a formality. There is no way it would seem that Republican candidate Donald Trump can rise from the ashes of his campaign and turn the tables on his rival who is pulling further and further ahead at every fresh count. What is occurring on US home territory is echoed even magnified elsewhere for the US election is a massive global event as witnessed among other places in India where there is intense interest in the details of the campaign. Many observers have more or less given up on Mr Trump though there has been a late flurry from some diehard supporters.

As the expected victory of Clinton draws nearer it is not without interest to recall that she first came to India two or three decades ago as First Lady and consort of President Bill Clinton. Relations between India and USA were edgy at the time nowhere near their current level of cordiality; the substantial overhang of the Cold War precluded the goodwill and trust that have since developed. But even though the circumstances were not entirely propitious Clinton went ahead and made the visit. She spent a few days in India met the senior leaders was received warmly travelled extensively and saw much. The favourable impression she garnered from her visit had its effect on President Clinton who often mentioned when he met Indian visitors how much she enjoyed her visit and he himself came to India not long after. Since then much has taken place in Clinton’s political career as Senator as Secretary of State and now as Presidential candidate yet one can expect that the impressions from her pioneering visit at a time when the bilateral relationship was not yet firmly grounded would not have worn off.

Sentiment in India towards the US election is unmistakably in favour of Clinton though there is no great expectation that her victory will mark any sea-change in the relationship. Nor is there any feeling that change is needed for over the years India-US relations have settled into a pattern with which both sides are comfortable. The concern from the Republicans that a victory for the Democrats would mean another four years of an incumbency that has lost its lustre may resonate among some voters in the USA but not so in India where continuity would be seen as a virtue. Moreover Indian opinion has been set aback by some of the more extravagant pronouncements of the Republican candidate which if taken literally are hardly conducive to improved relations between India and the USA.

What comes to pass after the elections will have to be seen and assessed in time but even at this stage a few possible consequences suggest themselves. For one a certain number of personnel changes will be more or less inevitable. That is something more characteristic of the US system than the Indian and a substantial shakeout of senior officials in the US State Department can be anticipated these being political appointees who normally move on when the leadership changes. In India of course there is no comparable changeover and the appointed officials tend to remain where they are which makes for continuity and smooth transition. Notwithstanding the normal practice there has been an unusual changeover in India’s Washington Embassy with a new Head of Mission being inducted on the eve of the election so there will be a new person to take up the running with the incoming team in USA. This change of accustomed procedure could have something to do with the fact that the outgoing Ambassador was nearing the end of his tenure and was due to move out in all events. In Delhi the US Ambassador also seems likely to be replaced by a new incumbent which is the normal practice in that system.

The impending political changeover in the USA will be an incentive to the NRI community to become more active both at the time of the election and subsequently. NRIs in the USA and in other parts of the world have become more visible in the last few years and more particularly during the tenure of the present Indian government. The Clinton supporters include a good number of people of Indian origin and one can anticipate that they will be ready to make a contribution in select areas of the new administration when it takes over. Thus the NRIs may have an incentive to develop a more significant voice in their country of adoption.

Apart from the need to strengthen exchanges within the immediate neighbourhood there are broader-spectrum international issues that have become more visible lately and can have a fallout on bilateral ties. The USA is currently very active in the Asian region and has been associated with more than one initiative where India may have somewhat contrary perceptions particularly in security and maritime issues. There is also the overspill from disturbances in the Middle East and other troubled areas to be taken into account as seen in Syria and its surrounding region where two major non-regional powers the USA and Russia are sometimes in contention sometimes in uneasy partnership. Finding a way through such geopolitical complications is an unavoidable policy challenge for India as its own international role strengthens and becomes more prominent.

The US role in Asia has recently come under challenge from China which has its own vision of how events should be shaped and has now acquired the resources to pursue its goals. Meanwhile lingering differences between India and China mean that their border remains unresolved and though by and large they have learnt to manage border affairs successfully there can be unexpected complications.

Only a few days ago the visit of the US Ambassador to Arunachal Pradesh provoked a Chinese protest which came as a reminder of the unsettled state of the frontier. The South China Sea is another area of contention between China and others where China has made a bid for ownership against many competing claims.

How far India and USA can make common cause in responding to these emerging challenges will add a dimension to their relationship. Post elections apart from consolidating their currently healthy relationship the two countries may need to strengthen their mutual understanding in responding to the lively situation that has developed in many parts of Asia.

The writer is India’s former Foreign Secretary.