On
October 24, Manipur Chief Minister Okram Ibobi Singh narrowly survived a
murderous attack on his life when his helicopter came under fire in Naga
dominated Ukhrul district. The CM had to inaugurate a hospital. Perpetrators of
this daring assassination attempt are suspected NSCN (I-M) cadres whose writ
still runs in the region despite the peace pact in place.

This
incident shook the North-eastern belt as it was safely assumed by the security
agencies  that threats had perhaps
evaporated due to the well entrenched 
peace deal. Ironically analysts were proved wrong. The weapons used were
lethal and many jawans of Manipur Rifles were injured in the attack. Preceding
this assault , there were bombings in the region. Possession of sophisticated
arms or grenades and bombs aimed to cause explosions confirm that Naga cadres
are well armed, have not yet abandoned their agenda and are capable of striking
at will targeting high-profile dignitaries.

All
was not over yet. Almost a month after this incident in the heart of the
North-east, ULFA cadres on November 20 ambushed an army convoy of the 15 Kumaon
regiment killing three jawans near Digboi, Assam . If the Ukhrul attack was a
wake-up call, ULFA’ s audacious offensive proves this militant outfit is still
a force to reckon with and the series of surrenders by original ULFA cadres and
deportation of ULFA fugitives from Bangladesh has had no profound or visible
impact.

ULFA
supremo Paresh Barua is believed to be in Ruili, Yunnan province of China. By
implication, therefore, it can be easily inferred that China is backing him not
only for shelter, supply of arms and funding but also training his cadre
remnants to revive insurgency in Assam and in adjoining parts of the North-east
to destabilise the region. This could be a possible Chinese plot, in concert
with Pakistan to open yet another front in the eastern theatre for
multi-pronged pin pricks in the light of geopolitical developments after the
Uri attacks. What’s equally disturbing but not altogether surprising  is the fact that the NSCN (Khaplang) group
was in concert with ULFA for the Tinsukia attack. The Khaplang segment of the
Nagas, mostly sheltered in Myanmar, also owe allegiance to the Chinese for
training, arms and funding. This nexus needs to be broken or ULFA and NSCN (K)
will continue to wreak havoc in an obvious attempt to revive ULFA extremism in
the region .

Khaplang
is known to be critically ill. There is a leadership crisis. Commander-in-Chief
Nimlong Konyak and Kilonser Thoiba are vying for the leadership. Operationally,
this could be exploited and cadres can be weakened by use of force or subtle
machinations for their marginalisation.

In
the meantime, joint forces of National Democratic Front of Bodoland (S) and its
other armed collaborators pose a real threat to Indian security forces
specially in Mon and Tuensang areas in Nagaland. They have already positioned
themselves at 3rd brigade in Ponyu to carry out the proposed offensive.

The
Myanmar government, on the face of it, appears to be on board with India. Still
they need to be more proactive and decisive to wean away the Khaplang faction
from ULFA.  Importantly, NSCN (K) and
ULFA chose Digboi in the Dibrugarh-Tinsukia belt to hit out at Indian security
forces as they are thoroughly familiar with the turf. All said and done, this
pronounced and unsettling emerging trend cannot be ignored . It would be
germane to point out that to contain the militancy in the North-east, 48 groups
are engaged by the government for discussions at various levels. North-east
watchers reckon that delay in taking the dialogue forward remains an impediment
to peace. Further, Meitei groups of Manipur and about 80 per cent of
Assam-based insurgent groups are present in Myanmar causing “off shore
militancy”. The Indo-Myanmar border spanning 1,643 kilometres is largely
permeable. The main concentration of ULFA, NSCN (K) and NDFB (S) camps is in
Taga area.  Besides, a number of camps of
other insurgent groups of Manipur are in close proximity to each other across
the borders of Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland and Manipur. The insurgents are
thriving with incessant flow of arms and ammunition mostly of Chinese, Thai and
Myanmarese origin.

Meanwhile,
authoritative sources indicate that China is directing the leadership of NSCN
(K) and ULFA ( Paresh Barua) for extra efforts to unite the outfits in the
region. The two main groups – UNLWF and CorCom – pose the biggest challenge to
peace and stability in the North-east. We see a definite Chinese agenda in the
scheme of things. Such designs have the potential to make the North-east
glaringly vulnerable – a fact Indian security and intelligence agencies cannot
afford to ignore.

If
China is a player then Pakistan cannot be far behind to trouble region. ULFA
had always enjoyed ISI patronage for training to cadres in Pakistan using
Bangladesh as an active conduit. The ISI helped North-eastern Indian Insurgent
Groups (IIGs) in establishing camps in Bangladesh, pumping counterfeit currency
into the region and handling Paresh Barua by giving him Pakistani and Chinese
passports and safe havens.

Being
desperate and frustrated, ISI may now redouble its efforts in targeting the
North-east to meet its designs. Interestingly, ISI’s nefarious designs and
Chinese collaboration in encouraging ULFA and its affiliates find mention in
Hein Kiessling ‘s latest book on ISI – Faith, Unity, Discipline .

The
attempt on the life of the Manipur CM and the ULFA-NSCN (K) offensive in Assam
are possibly early alarm calls needing undivided attention. The North-east,
when compared to Kashmir, probably gets less attention than it deserves. Prime
Minister Modi in his third successive annual address to the Indian Police,
slated next month, may do well by particularly sensitising seven states of the
North-east for a  more focussed approach
vis-a-vis security in the region.

–By
Shantanu Mukharji

The
writer, a retired IPS officer, is a security analyst and a Senior Fellow of the
Indian Police Foundation and Indian Police Institute. The views expressed are
personal.