Ubiquitous
Christmas of 2014 had been christened Good Governance Day by the newly-elected NDA Government. Offices had been kept open to…
Lots of questions rise in the minds of the people as many political parties are
becoming increasingly suspicious and vocal about the Prime Minister’s selective
strike against black money. They claim that BJP people, especially some important
ones already knew about the strike beforehand so that their money found safe
havens before any damage was done. Many even claim that a whopping sum of about Rs.1.5 lakh crore had been transferred by big business houses in four hours after the 8 November declaration of demonetisation. The fact that the foreign hawala transaction discount rate grew from 4 to 10 per cent by noon the next day has not escaped the lens of observers who see a game plan in what is projected a
fair executive action. Some even say that if the economy does not bounce back within six months, the consequences will be disastrous. It may fail all our expectations. Added to that the new amnesty scheme coming as the last and final solution to all those with black money can’t even guarantee that this can be executed without corruption and regeneration of new black money. What is the guarantee that Income-tax officers will not trouble people who
declare and deposit their money – accounted and unaccounted? Will it further traumatise the nation? One thing is almost certain– people will face huge corruption and harassment at the hands of the I-T department and there will be millions of tax related cases in various tribunal and courts. India is not Singapore which may be smaller than just one state of ours. It’s not even Libya or France that are far less populous and far more digitally savvy than us. Even the nature of our economy is very different. Predominantly ours is a cash economy and our vast unorganised sector, constituting over 75 per cent of the nation’s business, operates mostly in cash. The suddenness of demonetisation and the unprecedented cash crunch that followed is already giving nightmares to millions of small and medium business people and traders and billions of common people dealing with them.
At the same time, expecting that everyone in this digitally illiterate country can overnight get used to a new system is impractical. Even if the government organised knowledge workshops all over the country, which it should, it will take months if not more to educate people, especially villagers, about the new transactional norms. Until then, there will be more confusion, more inconvenience and more chaos.Will our tolerant population continue to wait in queue? The government has to think and find solutions. While the government might feel happy that more and more people are using cards and learning about electronic payments, it is necessary to spare a thought for the millions of small shopkeepers and tradespersons, the farmers and the labourers who are tied to a cash economy.
Only a minuscule number of them can carry out digital transactions. Habits of a
lifetime cannot be changed overnight. One can only hope that the patience of
these millions does not run out and things go horribly wrong. The clever and the tactful will continue to exploit the system to secure an unfair advantage over others
as many unscrupulous ones did in the aftermath of demonetisation to convert
cash into gold through unethical accountants. This mad rush created an unnatural demand by corrupt bureaucrats and some business houses causing the gold price to shoot up – touching even Rs.60,000 in old notes for 10 grams. That was the time when even thousands of ordinary people bought gold at the same price, some for marriages that couldn’t be put off and others to secure their future. Today, gold prices are back at Rs.33,000 per 10 grams. But because of the mad rush, thousands of honest buyers were cheated out of their money. The PM cannot overlook the new rush for new money. As the old notes are out of circulation, as
only Rs.2.5 lakh crore of new notes have been injected and as printing of more notes will take several months, many people will manipulate the system to withdraw large amounts from banks and hoard it. That again will severely affect even the limited circulation of new money and may cause unlimited damage to the prospects for trade, commerce, employment generation and of course to the economy. I get
frightened while thinking of a situation after 31 December when old currency of Rs.14.75 lakh crore is out of circulation and most of the new currency is parked in cupboards rather than being in circulation. This may lead to unimaginable chaos. Already, large numbers of people are facing inconvenience with no sign of relief. The unpreparedness of a big nation to shift to digi-transactions and go cashless is palpable. Millions are losing their cool and getting more restless by the day.We are fast approaching the tipping point. Amidst all this, much disturbing news is emerging every day, and anxiety levels are at a danger mark. As if this was not enough, a united opposition is halting the functioning of Parliament, all in the name of the public and their problems. This is why our dynamic Prime Minister must step
in decisively to assuage the people. While millions still trust him, trust unlike love
is not blind. Although the general belief is that the PM will speak out at the right time, the increasingly explosive situation demands that he do so soon. He must address Parliament and inform his opponents as well as the people about his plans. May be people will get convinced. May be his opponents will get exposed. But silence is not an option. The pulling down of old and damaged structures will be acceptable if people appreciate that the new structure that will rise in their place will benefit them. The concept of a Digital India is not impossible. But Mr. Modi must sell it to his countrymen. The alternative is the kind of chaos that the best of economists, political scientists or politicians may be unable to predict.
Advertisement
