Non-conformists’ day

Is Hillary Clinton yesterday&’s woman? For all her spirited campaigning for the Democratic presidential nomination, the outcome of the New Hampshire primary would appear to have reinforced the message from Iowa, and a tad more convincingly. Donald Trump, the maverick Republican and the mildly Leftist Bernie Sanders (Democrat) have been given the nod by rival camps in a state that traditionally has never mirrored the preferences and prejudices of the establishment. On both sides of the divide, therefore, it has been a day of the non-conformist, which in itself is a deviation from America&’s standard political history. New Hampshire has relegated Ms Clinton as much as the Republican front-runners to the also-ran category, and the scenario will be clearer come Super Tuesday on 1 March. Suffice it to register that the prologue to the presidential elections in the United States of America has seldom been so exciting as to be almost unpredictable. It was fairly obvious on Wednesday that voters are not a little disillusioned with mainstream politics in this election year. Trump&’s demagogy and the brand of socialism propagated by Sanders have, without question, had an impact on the electorate. On closer reflection, the psephological trend, however preliminary, is a trans-Atlantic phenomenon – stretching from the democracies in Europe – notably Greece and Spain – to America. The younger generation appears to be anxious for change in the political landscape though it would be presumptuous to expect a “popular revolution” on 8 November, spearheaded either by the Left or the Right. Mr Sanders must be acutely aware that votes will not readily lead to a structural change – political, economic or social. The last is especially important in the context of the spurt in racist attacks. Nonetheless, the indicators towards change are apparent enough and Barack Obama&’s rhetorical flourish (November 2008) – “Yes, we can” – was seldom more resonant in the past eight years.

In the hour of surprise upsets, Ms Clinton may be down, but is almost certainly not out. Unlike those who have pipped her in the primaries thus far, she remains a pillar of the establishment and she still has the best chance of becoming the first woman President of the United States. That said, the former First Lady and the nation cannot be impervious to the reality – that her chances are diminished. In recent Democratic debates she has had to defend herself against her proximity to Wall Street and her conduct in office as Secretary of State. She will also have to contend with the fact that the young, who had flocked to her campaign eight years ago, have now switched their allegiance elsewhere as she and America gear up to face the crucial question whether she will be able to trump Trump.

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