Is Prime Minister Narendra Modi moving towards an escalation strategy vis-a-vis Pakistan having exhausted other options? It appears to be so although when he came in 2014 he extended a hand of friendship. He followed it up with dialogue and even landed up in Lahore last Christmas for a cup of tea with Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. But what followed were Pathakot and now Uri where 19 soldiers were killed.

Soon after the Uri attack, Modi said: “I assure the nation that those behind this despicable attack will not go unpunished.” South Block is giving indications that there will be a fitting reply to Pakistan.”For one tooth, the complete jaw,” was  the  BJP general secretary Ram Madhav&’s response after the Uri attack claiming “days of so-called strategic restraint are over”.   This is indeed the BJP and the RSS line on Pakistan.

Opposition parties, particularly the Congress, have jumped into the fray, egging the prime minister on by reminding him of his campaign promise that  India would never appear soft in the face of Pakistani aggression under his leadership.

The hawks in India are demanding that Pakistan be taught a lesson. Even after the Parliament attack in 2001, there were such demands but Prime Minister Vajpayee just fell short of it by lining up 100,000 soldiers eye ball to eye ball on the border, showing utmost restraint. A similar sentiment was seen after the 26/11 Mumbai terror attack in 2008 when Prime Minister Manmohan Singh showed restraint. In the past two decades India has been  struck by major terror attacks in 2001, 2008, 2013, 2015 and 2016 despite Indo-Pak ties riding a roller coaster. The doves are for caution and not for knee-jerk reactions.

While it may look as if India has a wide variety of options, there are also constraints. The government has the entire range of political, military and intelligence tools at its disposal. But Modi’s biggest challenge will be finding a course of action that will keep his constituents at home happy.

Modi must weigh all options. A military response might result in partial or full-blown war. The chief of Pakistan&’s army, Raheel Sharif, said recently that India was propagating “a hostile narrative” and warned that his forces were “fully prepared to respond to the entire spectrum of direct and indirect threat”. A recent survey by  the Washington, DC-based Pew Research Centre shows that 62 per cent of Indians think that military force is the best way to respond to terrorism. Modi might opt for a strategy to keep Pakistan under pressure.

India can boast of the third largest Army, fourth largest Air Force and seventh largest Navy. But the future wars may not be only conventional wars, as there also are other methods such as nuclear and cyber wars. Defence Minister Manohar Parikkar is reported to have given a military plan of action.  But a botched attempt could lead to the possibility of a full- blown war.

Secondly, a water war could be an option by using the Indus valley treaty to put pressure on Pakistan. It also has a connection with Jammu and Kashmir. Demands for abrogation of the Indus treaty are growing since a resolution seeking a treaty review was passed in the state Assembly in  2003. The treaty reserves just 19.48 per cent of the total waters of the six-river Indus system to India. The suggestion is to invoke use of state-reared terrorist groups under Article 62 of the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, for withdrawal from the Indus treaty. The  IWT could  be an effective tehcnique to armtwist Pakistan but will India do it?

The third is New Delhi is making efforts to isolate Pakistan globally and building support for India. Diplomatically India has moved fast with Indian diplomats explaining the situation to major powers like the USA, UK, France, Germany and Japan to seek their support against Pakistan for the Uri attacks. But Pakistan  is not without friends.  Islamabad enjoys a very close strategic relationship with its neighbour China. Relations with regional neighbours, Saudi Arabia, the GCC and Turkey remain friendly. However, a major foreign policy challenge for Pakistan is to address America&’s alignment with India and Afghanistan while preserving its vital strategic partnership with China.

The fourth is to launch covert operations in Baluchistan and Gilgit. The Modi government has already taken steps in this regard and the first is to give asylum to Baloch leader Bugti and also open refugee camps for them. More is expected in the coming days.  The idea is that these Baloch leaders would influence public opinion in Baluchistan. One of India&’s covert plans, reportedly, is to use precise guided munitions to attack terror camps.

Sixth is to impose economic sanctions on Pakistan not only by India but also to seek support from other countries. But the Indian attempt to squeeze Pakistan economically after the 2001 attack on Parliament, by halting air and land trade did not succeed. Pakistan&’s total import from the region is less than four per cent.

Modi is currently under pressure from his own party, the RSS, the hawks and even the opposition to show action. He is in a mood to take risks. The course he chooses in the coming weeks and months will not only decide whether the prime minister emerges as a statesman or a risk taker.