After a long period, when they have been at cross purposes on a whole range of issues, Russia and the USA have now agreed among themselves to cooperate on some counter-terrorism measures in Syria. The battle against terror in that country has been going on for over five years during which there have been huge losses of life; pitiful images of refugees and injured children tell the tale, but only now have Russia and the USA, the two countries most capable of making a difference in combating the terror, been able to join forces, and that too for strictly defined and limited purposes. International humanitarian agencies and NGOs have been wringing their hands on the sidelines, unable to do anything much to halt the strife and the losses, though some of the accounts of loss are truly horrific; over 470,000 in one of the latest estimates, and that in a not very large country. This terrible human tragedy has been obscured by the political contention within the region, and has only recently begun to be acknowledged in its true tragic dimension as the flow of refugees has had its impact on the global conscience.

Syria has been the most intense battleground between the Islamist insurgents and the established state. The regime of Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad has long been under severe military pressure as a result of which there has been considerable erosion of its authority. Syrian opposition groups established abroad, especially in the West, have maintained close ties with insurgent groups at home and have been able to funnel material and other support to them, which has made for heightened conflict. But Mr. Assad has been able to hold on without compromising his gritty independence. However, his country remains severely divided and riven by factional struggles — a ‘quagmire’ as the UN Special Representative calls it —  and there is a huge clash of views about the shape of the future, not to mention the ever-present danger of the Islamists. 

Among the issues that trouble the country is that involving the Kurds. These are tribal people of the mountains who have never been assimilated into the countries surrounding them, with which they share numerous links, including a shared religion. Their long quest for independence has never been realized but neither has it been abandoned, and at the present time of great regional uncertainty, active proponents of independence for the Kurds seem to be sensing an opportunity, which is an added complication to an already complicated picture. But this is not currently the overwhelming challenge before Syria; the main issue is to beat back the Islamists who have brought so much ruin and destruction. As already mentioned, the forces to be confronted are themselves badly divided, and are hard pressed by divisions in their own ranks, and also by the international confusion they have encountered.

It is against this background that the recent coming together of Russia and the  USA is to be measured, and an assessment made of the understanding established between them regarding Syria. On the face of it, these two countries, both major presences in the region, have strong common interest in curbing the Islamists and could well have effectively coordinated their actions years ago. But they have been driven by deep rivalry that goes back in some respects to Cold War days, and some of the suspicion they engender in each other today also seems to date back to that period. Russia has been a steadfast friend to Mr. Assad and has lent him military support, while the USA has been hostile to his regime and promoted various initiatives to bring it down. Nevertheless, under the pressure of circumstances and in response to a perception of spreading danger from the Islamists — ISIS or Al Nusra as the case may be —  they have agreed on some operational arrangements to ensure that they do not get in each other’s way while conducting military strikes against the opposition.

This may not be a great step forward but it could be the beginning of a new dispensation for Syria. In that country, and elsewhere in the Islamic world, slowly but steadily the extremists are losing ground. Where once they occupied large chunks of territory, and set up their own rule and administration, they show palpable loss of authority. That has had important consequences. Like other groups elsewhere, for instance in Afghanistan, the Islamists have become more violent and have tried to re-establish their hold by intensifying their fanatical actions. A number of violent attacks over the last few days testify to the intensity of the confrontation and to the fact that the battle against the Islamists is not yet won.

What now is to be seen is whether the small step taken in Syria becomes the harbinger of something new to push back the Islamist thrust in the region. President Obama, now in the last phase of his period of rule, has already shown remarkable political creativity in dealing with awkward issues left over from history — consider, for instance, his success in burying the hatchet with Iran. Drawing closer to Mr. Assad as part of a strategy to bring the Islamists under control could perhaps be part of the final course correction that has been so productive a feature of the waning days of his presidency. Whether it should be seen in that light or not, the Russia-US agreement gives room for enhanced expectation, and strengthens the front against Islamist extremists.

Mr Putin likewise has shown readiness to change course and find new tactics to deal with a dangerous problem. Under his charge, Russia never moved away from direct involvement in Syrian events, and the support he has provided to Syria over several years has played an important part in keeping the extremists at bay. It could be gratifying for him that his critics in the West who denounced his intervention when it started have eventually come round to join him. It is as yet a tentative and unproven initiative from both Russia and the USA but it can be a unique contribution to regional stability — after all, these are the two most potent military entities in the area and if they can work out some sort of mutual understanding among themselves they can make things very difficult for the terrorists.

India may not be directly engaged in these developments but it has stepped up its own campaign against terror and will no doubt be supportive of initiatives like the one negotiated by the Foreign Ministers of Russia and America , expecting to see the net close more tightly against the terror groups that have caused so much havoc, in India as much as in other parts of the region.

The writer is India’s former Foreign Secretary.