UN Security Council unanimously backs Syria peace plan
The UN Security Council on Saturday unanimously approved a resolution supporting a Russian-Turkish peace initiative for Syria, including an ongoing…
The victory of government forces, backed by Russia in east Aleppo, has seemingly lent more power to the elbow of the beleaguered Bashar al-Assad. In a sense, the boost neutralises the re-entry of ISIS into the ancient city of Palmyra last weekend. Equally has it been a setback for the rebels who had swept into the city in 2012, hoping that the repressive President would be deposed sooner rather than later. He soldiers on, and this precisely is the message to the comity of nations. Close to the sixth anniversary of the Arab Spring, the upheaval of 2011 has been a disaster in Syria.
On closer reflection, several factors in the geopolitical scenario have worked in Assad's
favour, chiefly the Russian airstrikes; the West’s decision not to respond militarily coupled with
the diplomatic weakness of the UN; Turkey’s decision not to press for Assad's ouster; and not
least the victory of Donald Trump. It is open to question nonetheless whether Assad's forces
would have been able to overrun Aleppo without Russian support.
It is palpable that the Kremlin has assumed an increasingly critical role in Syria, now approaching the sixth year of turbulence.
Whether Aleppo is under the control of the rebels or the palace in Damascus, the city bears witness to as devastating a humanitarian crisis as the influx of the migrants. Thousands are still
besieged, grappling with a crippling shortage of water, food, shelter, even hospitals. Small wonder
that the place is often referred to as “a giant graveyard”, “an end-of-the-world place” and “our
generation’s shame”.
The city showcases a potentially catastrophic cocktail of a repressive ruler’s army, the insurgents, and the Islamist militants… surging ahead from Mosul in Iraq to Aleppo. Ergo, the victory of Syria’s ruling class and the defeat of the rebels doesn’t quite inspire optimism as regards stability; the fall of Aleppo is very unlikely to end the Syrian conflict that in almost six years has killed hundreds of thousands and displaced half the population of 22 million.
Aside from the implications of warfare, the recapture of Aleppo will entrench Assad’s position further still. Nonetheless, he presides over a direly fractured land. ISIS still holds much of eastern Syria; the Kurds control a large part of the north-east; and the rebels in Idlib province, on the Turkish border, are dominated by hardline Islamists. The regime is unlikely to re-establish control over much land it has lost. The deepest tragedy of Aleppo and of Syria in the wider perspective is that the suffering of the people will be no closer to an end when fighting finally stops there, if at all.
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