At the beginning of the civil war in Syria, President Recep Erdogan of Turkey thought the fall of Bashar Al Assad in Syria was imminent and Turkey would be able to extend its influence on Syria. But Assad braving all adversity posed by the US, France and UK survived by stream-rolling all opposition in Syria. During the last five years Erdogan has left no stone unturned to topple Assad.

Turkey&’s incursion into Syria has opened a new front in the already complicated Syrian civil war. Turkey and other regional powers in West Asia, such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Iran, have been active players in the Syrian conflict since 2011, but this is the first time one of them has sent its army into Syria to join combat. Ankara repeatedly says the move is to fight the Islamic State; within days of rolling its tanks into Syria, Turkey declared that it had cleared the border town of Jarabulus of ISIS fighters. But there is little doubt that the real target of the Turkish forces are Kurdish militia.

This is not without reason. Agencies report that the car bomb blast in a remote Turkish post that killed 11 and wounded 78 was masterminded by a Kurdish suicide bomber. This might propel such military attacks against the Kurds in Syria. The attack took place just 50 meters from the town of Cizre, mainly Kurdish Sirnak province that borders Syria. Rebels linked to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party or PKK claimed the attack. In retaliation, Turkey has sent tanks across the border to help Syrian rebels and opposition to Syrian President Assad, to  retake Jarablus, a key ISIS-held border town and to contain the expansion of   Syrian Kurdish militia who are linked to the PKK.

The real design of Turkey became amply evident from the words the words of President Erdogan who said that operation would continue until all threats, including those from Kurdish militia fighters, were removed from the border areas. After capturing the Syrian frontier town of Jarablus from ISIS, the Turkish army advanced on areas controlled by Kurdish-aligned militias which have US support in battling jihadists. Turkey, which is fighting Kurdish insurgency at home, has openly said the operation dubbed Euphrates Shield has the dual goal of driving away the ISIS and preventing Kurdish forces extending their areas of control along Turkish border.

But Washington is highly critical and has said that such offensive by its NATO ally risks undermining the fight against ISIS because it was focusing on the Kurdish-aligned militia. A group monitoring the tangled, five-year-old conflict in Syria confirmed that 41 people were killed as a result of Turkish air strikes.

US has been finding it difficult to consolidate diplomatic clout in the Syrian offensive despite a sizeable presence on the frontlines. In the face of major offensive by different forces like Turkey and Russia, certainly with contrasting aims and interests, the US, currently is on the back foot as a dependable ally, Turkey is unilaterally perpetrating an offensive against US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which includes experienced Kurdish YPG fighters. But the offensive against Kurds in such a brazen manner defying US diktats is prompted by anti-US feeling in the backdrop of the failed military coup where Turkey openly accuses US of involvement. Turkey sees the hand of rebel leader Fetullah Gulen who is in the US.

After the failed July 15 coup that left at least 270 people dead, the Turkish government declared a state of emergency and launched a massive crackdown against supporters of the movement led by Gulen.

Turkey&’s state-run Anadolu news agency reported that so far 4,451 military personnel have been discharged since the coup, including 151 generals and admirals. Some 35,000 people have been detained for questioning and more than 17,000 of them have been formally arrested to face trial, including soldiers, police, judges, prosecutors and journalists. Tens of thousands have been dismissed from their jobs. Erdogan thinks that a majority of the coup plotters owed allegiance to Gulen.

The crackdown has raised concerns among Turkey&’s Western allies and human rights organizations. But Erdogan dismisses all opposition.

It is not yet clear who authorised the ‘failed coup’ against the civilian government in Turkey. There were rumours that US troops at the Turkish base in Incirlik had helped the coup plotters and animosity against the US rose sharply. In late July, thousands surrounded the Incirlik base, burning US flags and chanted ‘Death to the US’.  

The firmest indicator that the US opposed the coup, said Mr. Erdogan, would be the extradition of Mr Gülen. Since this is not likely to take place, tensions between the US, North Atlantic Treaty Organisation and Turkey will remain in future.

Turkey has two concerns. First, if it loses cross-border access to Syria, the Ankara-backed rebels would be in a weaker position in the Syrian civil war, which would in turn jeopardise Turkey&’s plans for a future Syria. Second, if Kurdish militias are allowed to further consolidate in the semi-autonomous Syrian Kurdistan, that would pose a direct strategic threat to Turkey, given the Syrian Kurds’ deep ties with their Turkish counterparts who are at war with Ankara. So Turkey wants to rupture the Kurdish momentum. This move, however, marks a dangerous turn of events. Kurds have proved the most effective ground force against the ISIS. All the major border towns they control, such as Kobane, Tal Abyad and now Manbij, were recaptured from the ISIS after long and bloody ground battles. In fact, the decline of the ISIS started with their defeat by Kurds in Kobane. Besides, the Turkish incursion makes the Syrian war more complicated. Given their recent battle history, Kurds won’t give up their position easily. This means that if Turkey persists with its operation, the border towns could witness another spell of war, while making the task of resolving the Syrian conflict more difficult. Unfortunately, Turkey seems less bothered about the chaos in Syria than the growing clout of Kurds. Turkey is equally concerned about its inclusion in European Union (EU) as major powers oppose Turkey for its serious human rights violation issue. 

The writer is Associate Professor of Political Science, Chanchal College, Malda.