Diplomacy can be also defined as a confrontation-prevention and solution-oriented mechanism. An “unstable” Myanmar is always a matter of concern for the North-east&’s insurgency-hit states. Earlier, I had tried to emphasise that the foreign policy with regard to India&’s South Asian neighbours is often understood as a mere tool of combating insurgency. As a result, the diplomatic thrust for the region and smaller countries like Myanmar always remained neglected.

In the meantime, Myanmar has seen some transitions. A resemblance of democracy has come in and in 2015 all eyes — as expected — would be on the general elections likely to be held by October-November. But the people of Myanmar, and more importantly the political machineries in that country — essential elements to run a democracy — have to ironically grapple with certain realities. There is a system under which 25 per cent of the seats are reserved for the military in parliament. This gives them veto rights against any constitutional change. In more ways than one, they say, the people of Myanmar continue to be bewildered by the “new-old” system where the military has the upper hand on major issues.

Now, importantly for New Delhi, the Indian government needs to be on guard about certain things — technically internal matters of Myanmar — but very sensitive for the Indian diplomatic establishment, especially in the context of the ruling BJP&’s keenness to have improved relations between Nagas in Nagaland and Manipur with the Nagas in Myanmar.

India shares a long frontier (1,600 km) with Myanmar. The government of India for decades took scant note of the fact that Myanmar&’s so-called “isolationist policy” — under the military regime — has only befriended it more to China.

Now in the last few years if the political turmoil and sustained international pressure one way or the other changed the lives of common Myanmarese, it has also changed things for Nagas in Myanmar who have often suffered the loss of home, lives and culture. Whether they often feel unwanted in their homeland also deserves scrutiny.
A sizeable portion in western Myanmar is dominated by ethnic Nagas who share a biological fraternity with the Nagas in India. Thus, it is often argued by political parties on the Indian side of the border and also security experts in South Block, that the condition of Nagas in Myanmar can have some impact vis-à-vis the insurgency movement of the Nagas on this side. That means this could easily impact states like Nagaland, Manipur, Assam and Arunachal Pradesh.

The Nagaland government is said to have recently submitted a paper to the Centre on these lines. But having said this, it needs to be appreciated that certain aspects of supposedly internal matters of Myanmar can easily bamboozle the Indian government, which, despite being subjected to all kinds of criticism, has been practising functional democracy for over six decades. 
In fact, certain aspects of  Myanmar&’s existing constitution is totally antithesis to democracy itself. The military commanders in there continue to have the “final say” in the appointment of the defence minister, home minister and the minister for border affairs. We have spoken earlier about veto powers of Myanmar&’s military rulers for any possible drastic constitutional changes.

Moreover, the new constitutional mechanism there enshrines that the military has the constitutional right to seize power if the President so decides. So in 2015, in the context of general elections later in the year, we could wake up one fine morning to yet another dawn/darkness of a military coup. And it could actually happen very easily. “It wouldn’t be a coup like before; it would be a constitutional handover of power to the military,” Myanmar watcher and senior journalist Bertil Lintner had told me during a recent interaction.

This would mean the Naga self-administered zone in western Myanmar, as stipulated by the 2008 constitutional norms, would end up as scratch. These can combine to make things somewhat complicated for New Delhi in dealing with the emotive and sensitive issue of the relationship between Nagas in India and their fraternal counterparts in Myanmar.

The policy-makers in New Delhi under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and especially his trusted national security advisor Ajit Doval, therefore ought to take matters concerning North-east India and neighbours like Myanmar more seriously.

It is significant to note that while delivering an address to mark the foundation day of the anti-terror National Investigation Agency, Union minister of state for home Kiren Rijiju has said that “there is no need to adopt a hawkish foreign policy. We are naturally a soft power. But soft does not mean weak. We have to be firm, responsible and strong in our resolve”.

Rijiju is a key leader from Arunachal Pradesh and reportedly shares a good working rapport with the NSA. Thus, the junior home minister&’s remarks are well taken. Indeed, the statement spells good intent and a sincere understanding of matters. But at the same time one needs to underline that New Delhi&’s foreign policy engine room, that is the PMO and the NSA in particular, needs to be pro-active vis-à-vis hitherto neglected neighbours like Myanmar.
RSS leader Ram Madhav has recommended that Myanmar be included in the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation. Myanmar opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi&’s eloquent hesitation in participating in the general elections in October is actually a matter of concern. One is stating this notwithstanding the fact that the performance of Suu Kyi&’s National League for Democracy in Parliament has remained far from satisfactory.
The army-dictated 2008 constitution not only clearly offers  the  military a win-win situation, it also bars Suu Kyi from becoming president or vice-president. The constitution requires the approval of 75 per cent of parliament to amend major portions of the charter and so an army-inspired hurdle for any drastic measure is only predictable. Can India make some difference in all of this? This will be a test of its persuasive diplomacy that experts often talk about.
India needs to experiment this art of “persuasive diplomacy”, making an effective synthesis of a soft approach in an authoritative manner from a position of strength with Myanmar.

 The writer is a Special Representative with The Statesman in New Delhi and the author of the book ‘The Talking Guns: North East India’. He blogs at www.bestofindiarestofindia.com.